December 13, 2017

Mahabharta 2017-Campaign Gujarat and ataque de nervios


Every time an election is announced in India, I take it for another battle of Mahabharta which now I would like referring to as 'War without End'. That is because electioneering in India is a perennial process, which is carried out with irritating ingemination. The bugles for one or the other battle continue to be sounded with sickening regularity.

When the dates for elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat were announced, I did not think that these elections merited particular attention. I assumed that in Gujarat, Modi / BJP juggernaut would be on a roll without meeting even a notional resistance, BJP having earlier managed a coup of sorts in the Gujarat state Congress organization; Ahmed Patels' Rajya Sabha victory on technical grounds not withstanding. My lack of interest was reinforced by another customary routine- the opinion poll, that follows any announcement of an election. This time round too, the opinion polls were conducted. India Today polls grudgingly informed that a decisive victory for BJP in both the states was imminent.


And suddenly, the self-appointed guardians of secular Indian democracy, the electronic media satraps like  Rajdeep Sardesai and the others of his ilk  started seeing ghosts. They started hallucinating of  an unfettered, unchallenged and autocratic Modi/BJP government back at the centre in 2019. They woke up with a start and an agenda to stop Modi/BJP in their tracks. And election in Gujarat was imparted unparallelled significance. 

Congress was shaken from its stupor. It was goaded and exhorted to try and fight the last ditch battle irrespective of the odds. It was perhaps given the pep talk coupled with the faint hope that the worst had already passed and things could only look up from here on wards.  Therefore post-haste, Rahul Gandhi was ostensibly resurrected as the comeback messiah though perhaps in reality he has been once more made the sacrificial lamb.

A lot has happened  since then though most of it is as absurd as can be. 

Rahul Gandhi launched a broad side on Modi/Amit Shah/BJP emphasizing that  they had failed the people of India and particularly the people of Gujarat by jeopardizing their livelihoods through demonetization, GST and 'the much hyped but defunct' Gujarat model of development.

Rahul Gandhi seems to be smug with a feeling that he has discovered in himself a creative streak of poking fun through "satire and pun". He appears to be enthralled by it. He is seen to be relishing his calling GST as 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. (See Reference 1)


The 'Gujarat model of development' was mocked at through a social media blitz comprising a number of videos with the 'innovative' catchphrase विकास गांडो थायो छे (Vikas has gone crazy). Vikas (a very popular name having the meaning of "Development") going crazy insinuates that Gujarat model of development has gone haywire.(See Reference 2). Rahul Gandhi was supported by other congress worthies like P.Chidambram in spreading the expression.

The electronic media opposed to Modi/BJP has been conducting debates / discussions on a daily basis and stage managing on-site surveys (polls) trying to create the impression that widespread discontent exists in the people of Gujarat against the incumbent BJP governments at the centre and the state. It tacitly tries to induce people into feeling that a Rahul or congress wave has begun to take shape and that the same will be able to dislodge the incumbent Gujarat government in 2017 and will prevent Modi from getting a second term at the centre in 2019.


Congress has been trying to rebuild Rahul Gandhi as a leader for quite sometime. This exercise had started even before the elections to HP and Gujarat were announced. He was suddenly hailed as a leader with massive following on the social media like Twitter. It was claimed that he had outsmarted Modi with number of tweets and re-tweets and that he would give Modi a run for his money in the coming days. However, BJP media managers were quick to lay bare the claim by proving that 'Bots' were instrumental for Rahul's pretentious claim to fame. (See Reference 3)

The controversy over Bhansali's film Padmavati was played up by the media as reignition of intolerance debate. The timing of the controversy smells of a carefully planned conspiracy to bias and wean certain sections of the society away from BJP. More on this topic in another piece some time later.

Another carefully planned conspiracy raised its head in the form of Rahul Gandhi's sudden and unprecedented display of faith in Hindu gods. He visited various temples in Gujarat ostensibly to seek blessings for the success of his election campaign. As part of the process, he visited Somnath where his name was entered in a register for non-hindu visitors. BJP spokespersons were quick to latch on to this 'misdemeanour' and branded him a hypocrite who was going temple hopping only to pull the wool over the eyes of Gujarati electorate. Congress showed extraordinary swiftness and urgency in claiming that he was a born hindu, a Shiv-bhakt and a Janeu dhari brahmin to top it all. Who will ultimately benefit from this controversy, is hard to tell.


Yet another event that the Congress considers an achievement is that Rahul Gandhi was able to woo Hardik Patel, another self proclaimed bete noir of BJP. It thinks that Hardik Patel along with Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani will be able to turn the tide against Modi and in favour of Congress. The rationale behind the optimism is that three above named are youth leaders and they will coalesce with Rahul Gandhi more easily than they would with Modi. (See Reference 4)

BJP lost no time in assigning the troika a new identity called HAJ, an acronym made from the initials of their names. The identity has glaring communal overtones.


Another event that was lapped up by the media was the filing of nomination papers by Rahul Gandhi for president-ship of the Congress. A big show was made of the nomination by the congress (See Reference 5). Not unexpectedly, BJP dismissed the event as an eyewash and mockery of democratic processes and values. There were some very interesting and intriguing comments from both congress partisans and loyalists and the adversaries from BJP.



It was good to see that Manmohan Singh  found his long last speech when he waxed eloquence to say that " Rahul ji has been the darling of the Congress----"

In stark contrast, Shahzad Poonawalla, a very vocal Maharashtra Congress leader, suddenly raised the banner of revolt. He had hitherto taken great pains in projecting himself as a dyed-in-the wool congress loyalist. Labelling Rahul's nomination a "coronation", he termed it as a black day in the history of the party.

And Mani Shankar Iyer already notorious for his immodesty, vitriolic tongue and penchant for creating controversies by making derogatory remarks about any adversary in general and Modi in particular, came out with an ambiguous statement. He quipped that "When Shah Jahan came in the place of Jahangir did any election happen? And when Aurangzeb came in place of Shah Jahan did any election happen? It was known to everyone that the throne of the king will automatically go to the heir"


Modi was quick to grab the opportunity. Addressing a public meeting in Dharampur constituency in Gujarat, he said: "Mani Shankar Aiyar, who never shies away from showing loyalty to one family, proudly said - When Shah Jahan came in the place of Jahangir did any elections happen? --------" 

Modi went on to hit the nail on the head by saying "I congratulate the Congress on their 'Aurangzeb Raj.' For us, the wellbeing of the people matters and 125 crore Indians are our high command,"

All this while, I had been eagerly awaiting for a Brahmastra akin to demonetization from Modi / BJP that would destroy the challenge from his opponents completely and comprehensively. It has been elusive in the current battle. In the absence of high class weapons from both sides, BJP as well as Congress, the battle degenerated into indecent war of words.

Mani Shankar Iyer made an extremely objectionable remark about Modi calling him 'neech' and an uncultured person. Whether the Gujaratis will retaliate by voting congress out is to be taken with a proverbial pinch of salt.


Modi launched an exasperating attack on the Congress by brandishing a double-edged sword in the form of a serious allegation that a seditious conspiracy had been hatched at Mani Shankar Iyer's house. He alleged that a secret rendezvous organized at that place had senior Congress leaders including ex-PM Manmohan Singh and ex-VP Hamid Ansari striking a cozy deal with a group of Pakistani diplomats and military strategists to chalk out a program to undermine the success of BJP at the Gujarat hustings this season. This allegation betrays a sense of desperation and a diminishing of confidence creeping in the BJP camp regarding its expectations of the results in Gujarat elections. At the same time, Gujarat congress is complaining of misuse or tempering of EVMs. (See Reference 5). This clearly indicates that Congress leaders are also nervous after having made tall claims about handing BJP a defeat in its most prestigious and impregnable bastion.



The last day of campaigning saw two significant expositions from the chiefs of the two warring armies. Modi became the first passenger in the very first flight of a sea plane in India. He took off from Sabramati River Front in Ahmedabad to land at Dharoi dam en route to Amba Ji temple. As per BJP, this act redoubles BJP's agenda of development. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi continued his temple run, this time visiting Jagannath Temple more to pray to the people of Gujarat to vote in favour of a hindu Rahul Gandhi-led Congress than to show to Lord Jagannath his faith in Him.


The battle of Gujarat, which seemed innocuous in the beginning, has turned out to be a pot-boiler which is fueled by jibes and jeers, taunts and sneers, barbs and smears - albeit of the worst kind. 

The Campaign Gujarat has had deleterious effect on both BJP and Congress. Both seem to have suffered 
                     ataque de nervios (attack of nerves)

This battle of nerves and swerves, jitters and fritters, insinuations and implications and innuendos and verbal kendos would be decided on 18th December, 2017 but the war without end will continue.

Though I told myself that it would advisable not to take sides and not to hazard a guess but await the results in stead, the gut feeling is the BJP Pandvas will win this battle of Mahabharat 2017 too. They have not only definitely openly exhibited a faculty and willingness for repartee but also their resolve to win at all costs.

Fortune favours the brave

Refer
ence 1: http://www.news18.com/news/politics/rahul-gandhi-calls-bjps-gst-gabbar-singh-tax-says-gujarat-youth-cant-be-bought-1554525.html

Reference 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4zryL_VcrE&list=RDo4zryL_VcrE&index=1

Reference 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqVPGJBqkEs

Reference 4:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/hardik-patel-alpesh-thakor-jignesh-mevani-gujarats-youth-factor/articleshow/61679722.cms

Reference 5: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/rahul-gandhi-files-nomination-for-congress-president-post/article9980952.ece

Reference 6:http://indianexpress.com/elections/gujarat-assembly-elections-2017/gujarat-elections-2017-congress-complains-of-evm-tampering-via-bluetooth-ec-orders-probe-4975319/

June 19, 2017

Spirited Surrender - First Intimation Report

Something happened to me about two months ago. Something  snapped inside me. I mysteriously came to be possessed.

I just heard some extra-mundane being  proclaiming an edict commanding me to take an oath and I heard myself simply say "I  do" in total surrender and unconditional compliance. 

I took an oath of abstinence from alcohol.  An abstinence that is unqualified and total. No half measures. It came into force with immediate effect and is binding for life.

I have not as yet reflected on the occurrence to appreciate what caused it. I am writing this piece simply to inform about the occurrence of the event and its two immediate spin offs 

1. I promised myself that in due course of time, I would  revisit the occasion and establish a plausible explanation. I would then publish a detailed note which would comprise, apart from my analysis of this mystical event, the genesis of my love affair with alcohol, the experience(s) and the associated tales that got spewed thereof and which became part of the folk lore about my persona.

2. A spirited expression of intent in verse form came forth. Here is the same

इक बार फिर से तौबा   की है शराब से
पाना निजात चाहता  हूँ  इस अज़ाब1 से

उलफ़त  से  इसकी मुझको रुसवाईयां मिलीं
महरूम ही रहा  हूँ  मैं हर सवाब2 से

मुश्किल तो बहुत होगी उसे तोड़ने में गोया 
बरसों से जो लगी है  ख़ानाख़राब3  से

गैरों को बस  यकीं है अपनों को एहतिमाल4
कहते हैं मुंह बनाके न होगा जनाब से

तौफ़ीक  दे वोह मुझको  कि निबाह कर सकूं
करता हूँ यह दुआ  वाहिद5  तव्वाब6  से

बाकी बची उमर  की नई  दास्तां  लिखूँ 
आग़ाज़-ए-दास्तां7  इक नए  ही बाब8  से 

1. अज़ाब: Curse  2. सवाब : Reward of good deeds    3. ख़ानाख़राब:  Ruined / Ruiner       4. एहतिमाल: Doubt   5 वाहिद: The only one-God      6  तव्वाब: Forgiver-Acceptor of tauba
7 आग़ाज़-ए-दास्तां: Beginning of the story   8. बाब: Chapter 

March 23, 2017

Mahabharat Continues: Pandvas are euphoric, Kauravas delirious

March 11, 2017 will go down in the history of democratic India as an epoch marking day. It is on this eventful day that the results of  elections for  Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur were declared (See Reference 1). The voting for elections for these five states had been carried out in a number of phases over  a long span of 34 days starting 4th February, 2017 and ending 9th March, 2017.

In order to appreciate the import of these results, it is necessary to review the performance of various contenders in the subject elections vis-a-vis their performance in the the previous elections. To facilitate this exercise, the results of elections from  2002 to 2017 have been tabulated below. The tables show the number of seats won by the main players in the various election years.

    1. Uttar Pradesh:

Party
2002
2007
2012
2017
BJP
88
51
47
312
SP
143
97
224
47
BSP
98
206
80
19
INC
25
22
28
7

  • In the elections before 2017, BJP had been kept at bay by the chakravyuha of  casteist and 'secular' politics constructed by BSP and SP, jointly and severally. BJP was virtually banished to wilderness as it was not able to find an 'Arjuna' who knew the art and craft of penetrating that formation. 
  • But in the campaign for 2017 elections, Modi and Amit Shah appear to have been able to decode the intrigue.They seem to have struck a chord with the people of Uttar Pradesh and were successful in exhorting them to rise and speak in one voice against the sacrifice of development and good governance at the altar of populism and politics of appeasement.
  • In 2017, the people of Uttar Pradesh have obliged Modi, Shah and BJP. They have spoken very decisively. They have inflicted a double whammy on  INC, SP and BSP. On the one hand, they handed these parties their worst drubbing at the hustings, on the other hand they gave BJP an unprecedented and even unexpectedly huge mandate.

      2. Uttarakhand:

Party
2002
2007
2012
2017
BJP
19
34
31
57
INC
36
21
32
11
Others
15
15
3
7
  • The elections of 2007 had afforded BJP a taste of the power of ruling Uttarakhand. However, in 2012, BJP had to cede the ground to INC by the thinnest of margins. In midterm in 2016, it made an attempt to capitalize on the fissure in INC where in 9 MLAs revolted against the incumbent Chief Minister. In the queer legislative imbroglio that ensued, the central government clamped President's rule. This rule proved short-lived and lasted only about 45 days (27th March to 12th May, 2016). The disqualification of 9 MLAs did not help matters for BJP. INC rule was restored.
  • In 2017, very much like their UP counterparts, the people of Uttarakhand have also made INC to make an inglorious exit. They have inflicted a very heavy defeat on INC and vehemently rejected the incumbent government. They gave BJP an unassailable and unprecedented majority-80% of the seats.

    3. Manipur:

Party
2002
2007
2012
2017
INC
20
30
42
28
BJP
4
0
0
21
Others
36
30
18


  • Hitherto, North East was virtually a no-no for BJP in spite of its debut in 2002. But BJP's stock is rising very fast in North East too. It wrested Assam from INC just a while ago.
  • In 2017, BJP has outdone itself in Manipur. Though it won fewer seats than INC, it was able to garner support from non-INC parties and was able to form a government. BJP-led government is now firmly in the saddle having comfortably sailed through the floor test in the assembly to prove its majority

    4. Goa:  

Party
2002
2007
2012
2017
BJP
17
14
21
13
INC
16
16
9
17
Others
7
10
10
10
  • The results of subject elections of 2017 had initially spelt  doom for BJP  It had recorded its worst performance in Goa till date. The alliance partners had gone their separate ways; Manohar Parrikar was out of the scene having gone to Delhi to do national duty as Defence Minster. The people of Goa showed their unhappiness with the incumbent Parrikar-less BJP dispensation with the result that the incumbent Chief Minister and a number of ministers suffered defeat.
  • But BJP exhibited remarkable resilience. It rose like phoenix and acted with speed of light. It sought and managed to secure support from not only from its erstwhile ally MGP but also from GFP. With the letters of support in its hand, BJP leapt forward to lay its claim to form the government. It has since successfully passed the floor test too. INC has been left sulking and licking its wounds. Some INC heads may roll. 

    5. Punjab:

Party
2002
2007
2012
2017
SAD +BJP
44
67
58
18
INC
62
44
46
77
Others
11
6
3
22
  • BJP was well nigh aware that very much like the people of Uttar Pradesh, the people of Punjab will also speak and speak loudly and clearly against the hegemonic rule of Badals. In spite of the knowledge that alliance with SAD in Punjab will be deleterious to its interests, BJP did not sever its ties with SAD. What gives here, will need further exploration and elaboration. However, that at a later date.
At the end of it all, in summing up the election results, it comes as no surprise that Pandavas ( BJP) is euphoric and  Kauravas (INC, SP and BSP ) are delirious.

Some of the reactions of the losers and their sympathizers are outrageously ridiculous. Mayawati has gone to the extent of saying that every Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) used in UP elections was rigged. According to her, each machine was so programmed that irrespective of what button was pressed, every vote got cast in favour of BJP. (See Reference 2). According to her EVM just means 'Everyone Voted Modi'. 

Immediately after seeing the results, even I, who is  politically naive, had remarked that the losers will term EVM as "Every Vote for Modi" device. The irony of the situation is that people who pretend to be the guardians of democracy, protectors of secularism and epitomes of honesty have joined the chorus. The perpetual cry-baby Arvind Kejriwal and king-jester Laloo Yadav are not the ones to miss any opportunity of BJP-bashing. They conveniently forget that the same EVMs helped them comprehensively defeat Modi in Delhi and Bihar. I wonder at the Indian electronic media which is ever ready to rake up or invent controversy after controversy to keep up their viewership and promote and perpetuate leftist agenda against the (rightist) BJP

Another shameless statement came from Digvijay Singh, the Raja-turned-serf who frequently goes over-board in denigrating Modi and BJP  to ostentate his loyalty to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. This INC General Secretary had the audacity to declare publicly on all electronic media that if he had money at his disposal, he would have been able to buy enough legislators to ensure formation of INC government in Goa. I wonder why Election Commission should not take suo moto notice of this statement and initiate legal action against him.

INC and other opponents of BJP and Modi raised a lot of hue and cry against the actions of Governors of Goa and Manipur but to no avail as the petitions drafted by legal luminaries of INC including the likes of Abhishek Manu Singhvi  were dismissed by Supreme Court.

While INC, SP, BSP and others are still smarting from  injury caused by results of elections and the insult inflicted by the repulsion of their legal offensives, BJP has gone ahead and appointed Yogi Adityanath as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Not only the opponents of Modi, BJP and RSS are aghast, but also many a  saffron partisan are flummoxed by this move.

The first though that came to my mind was that Yogi Adityanath is being  perceived as the latter day Abhimanyu who has the in-born natural talent to raid and penetrate the chakravyuh. Perhaps it is believed that this modern Abhimanyu possesses the temperament like the original but unlike him has time on his side to learn and augment his half-knowledge to make it complete and thus metamorphose into Arjuna in  due course.

Immediately, the second thought that replaced the first one was that this appointment of Yogi Adityanath was equivalent to the deployment of 'Ghatotkach' ( see Reference 3) in Mahabharat. In physical appearance, Yogi Adityanath  may look like a micro version of the fabled warrior but he may as well be able to conjure up latent powers to expand and enlarge at will. He is certainly capable of breathing fire which can roast his adversaries alive.  Where are the Kauravas going to find the 'Vasvi Shakti or Amoghastra' to thwart and neutralize him?

Yogi's likeness or lack of it to Abhimanyu or Ghatotkach being immaterial, by appointing Yogi Adityanath as Chief Minister of UP, BJP has undoubtedly blown its conch for the next battle. The action is deliberately designed to  terrorise and demoralize the opponents. They will be kept  on tenterhooks and will be hard pressed to hurry up to reset their strategies and plans. The action also gives BJP's own army a reason  to remain battle ready and fighting fit.

Mahabharat continues. We shall wait till the result of the next battle to find out who will be euphoric and who will be delirious. 


References:
1. http://www.eciresults.nic.in/
2. http://www.timesnow.tv/state-elections-2017/video/mayawati-blames-tampering-of-evms-for-bsps-poor-performance/57390
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghatotkacha

March 8, 2017

Mahabharta Continues---

The defeat of BJP in electoral battles, first in Delhi & Bihar and subsequently in Bengal, coupled with the loss of its court battles in defence of the imposition of President's rule in Uttrakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, had given hope to the adversaries of BJP that they had finally hit upon a formula to nail the BJP down and to prevent it from coming to power at the centre in 2019. But undoubtedly, their celebrations were  premature. BJP bounced back with a resounding victory in Assam, hitherto relatively uncharted territory for it. The events in Arunachal Pradesh also took turn in favour of the BJP when Pema Khandu deserted Indian National Congress(INC) to join Peoples' Party of Arunachal and chose to join hands with BJP to form a new government. These events have given BJP a new lease of life and have reinvigorated it in its fight against its detractors. Mahabharata has resumed and it continues......

I had started writing this piece of blog before the dates of elections in UP, Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand and municipalities and zila parishads in Maharashtra were announced. A lot has happened since then; a lot of water has flowed in the Sutlej, Yamuna, Ganga, Gomti and Godavari.

  • INC has since abandoned its grand plans of fighting the elections on its own. It has effectively thrown in the towel and has accepted to ride pillion on the carrier of Akhilesh's Samajwadi Bicycle. 
  • The divorce between BJP and Shiv Sena for fighting municipal elections in Maharashtra turned out to be quite ugly and acrimonious. BJP came up trumps in most of the municipal elections. Even in Mumbai, its performance was by far the best though it could not overtake Shiv Sena. On the other hand, the decimation of INC continues unabated. 
  • The stage-managed fight between Akhilesh and Mulayam for keeping the 'Bicycle' makes another story, which may be narrated on some other occasion.
Since I am in a hurry to finish this piece before the results of the assembly elections are announced, the fact that it may seem anachronistic not withstanding, I resume this piece from where I had left it, taking it like a flash back.

Here goes---
The bugle for the next all important battle has been sounded. The coming elections in Uttar Pradesh have driven all political parties including BJP, SP, BSP and INC into a frenzy. The frenetic scramble for organizing and reorganizing the armies, the deployment of armament, fine tuning of the strategies and action plans for this battle have started in dead earnest. The stakes in this battle are very very high for both BJP and its opponents.

The electoral history of Uttar Pradesh from 1989 onwards makes a very curious reading (See Reference 1 below). INC which had ruled the state up to that year, is no longer a force to reckon with. However, the realization seems to have dawned on its leaders that the elections in UP may well nigh be the last opportunity for them to redeem a modicum of its past glory. Accordingly, INC is ostensibly trying to put up a brave front. It has perhaps come to the conclusion that a failure in these elections will be the last nail in its coffin; official declaration of the failure would be tantamount to sounding of the death knell.

BSP and its supremo Mayavati have had flirtatious relations with SP and BJP from 1993 onwards. ( See Reference 2 Below)

During the period 1995-2003, Mayavati was crowned Chief Minister three times, though for a short period each time as given below.
i) 1995 : 137 days ( 3rd June 1995 to 18th October 1995)
ii) 1997: 184 Days 21st March 1997 to 20th September 1997
iii) 2002-03: 1 Year 118 Days 3 May 2002 to 29 August 2003


But the 2007 elections gave BSP and Mayavati a clear and unassailable majority and unfettered power to rule. This success was achieved through a very clever and strange coalition of Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins. BSP was able to wean the Muslims away from SP and poach the Brahmins from BJP.

Each stint of Mayavati's rule, irrespective of its length, was marked by corruption, arbitrariness and whimsicality in governance. Some people do credit her with economic growth of the state during her fourth term. It is claimed that during that period, UP economy grew by a substantial 7%.


In 2012, Mayavati's hopes of riding on the back of the claims of economic growth and returning to power for a second term were dashed and she was made to bite the dust by her arch rivals, the Yadav clan. The analysts attribute her defeat to a common irony of history. She had to reap what she had sown. She had been instrumental in deepening the social divide and widening the chasm prevalent in the society due to caste and religion. Because of her preoccupation with perpetration of these fissiparous tendencies, governance had become a casualty. The nemesis in the garb of anti-incumbency caught up with her.


Samajwadi party and its founder Mulayam Singh Yadav have also had a checkered history of rule in UP. Like Mayavati, he also has the dubious distinction of being coronated CM of UP thrice.


1. Mulayam Singh Yadav first became Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh in 1989. In November 1990, Yadav joined Janata Dal (Socialist) party of Chandra Shekhar. He was facilitated by INC to continue as chief minister. His government was felled by Congress In April 1991 in reaction to the aftermath of developments at the centre, wherein the Congress party withdrew support to government.

In April 1991, Congress party withdrew its support, culminating in the fall of Mulayam Singh's government and end of his first stint as CM of Uttar Pradesh.
In the mid-term elections to Uttar Pradesh assembly, which were held in mid-1991,  Mulayam's party lost power to the BJP.


2. In 1992, Mulayam founded his own Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party). In 1993, he cobbled an alliance with BSP to prevent BJP from returning to power and temporarily succeeded in his machinations. He became chief minister of Uttar Pradesh with the support of Congress and Janata Dal. He continued occupying the CM's chair until BSP pulled the rug from under his feet.


3. S
trangely, Mulayam's third stint as chief minister came about  courtesy BJP. On August 25, 2003,  BJP pulled out of its coalition with BSP resulting in the fall of Mayavati government. Simultaneously, a large enough number of BSP legislators revolted against Mayavati and deserted BSP. With the support of independents and small parties, Mulayam was able to become Chief Minister in September 2003 and continued in office till the elections in 2007 again did him in.

Samajwadi party regained control of UP with a resounding victory in 2012. The credit for this victory was given to the dynamic leadership of Akhilesh who has been hailed as a GenNext Yadav and a youth icon. Accordingly, Mulayam bowed out and handed over the baton to Akhilesh.


There are alleged similarities between BSP and SP rules. The anti-incumbency factor is at work again.


Perhaps Mulayam, Akhilesh and their advisers in Samajwadi party have also realized the 
ground reality that anti-incumbency has gained currency. They have taken recourse to the formula implemented by INC in Delhi. According to some knowledgeable analysts, when INC realized that people of Delhi would reject Sheela Dikshit-led INC in assembly elections, it devised a plan to hoodwink them. It created Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) as ostensibly-corruption-free anti-dote to BJP The ruse worked in Delhi. Aam Aadmi party was able to thwart BJP. This came about more of because of error of judgment on the part of BJP rather than due to any merit of AAP.

As per the adaption of the formula by SP, Akhilesh has projected himself as a victim of the machinations of his uncle Shivpal Yadav who is alleged to have manipulated his brother, Mulayam, the party patron. But it seems that secretly all stakeholders of SP, nurture hopes that people of UP would be beguiled by this and would vote in sympathy for Akhilesh, the innocent and unwary victim.

Immediately following the defeats in Delhi and Bihar, Modi and BJP must have come to realize that their return to power in 2019 was entirely dependent upon the advent or absence of a single entity - the stitching of a grand alliance between the opponents of Modi and BJP. Therefore, it simply follows that Modi had to come up with something that would either inhibit the formation of the grand alliance or would be something so extraordinary that people of India would forget the alliance even if it came into existence and would root for him instead. 


And come up he did and how--

  • The first thing that was done was the 'surgical strike' against the terrorist camps and hideouts along the LOC and inside POK. (see Reference 3 below) It was hailed and viewed as an extra-ordinarily courageous step taken by a clear minded, strong, upbeat and forthright government which would no longer take things lying down. The action not only surprised the Pakistan army, Pakistan government and Pakistan-backed terrorists, it overwhelmingly surprised the opponents of Modi and his party and government. While it caught the imagination of the whole of India, the perpetual cry-babies including Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal and others of their ilk got thoroughly confused. To start with they appreciated the action per se and the army for taking it, then did a somersault and started asking for proof. Even a child would understand the intention behind their see-saw behaviour and  flip-flop attitude.
  • The second thing was like obliteration bombing on the enemies' stockpiles of 'armament'. It is no secret that elections in India are fought like wars albeit with money serving as the arms and ammunition. A party which spends more money is more likely to win. And it is also equally well known that the money used for funding the elections is black money: illegally acquired and unaccounted money. Modi's announcement of 8th November, 2016 whereby currency notes of denominations of Rs.1000 and Rs.500 were rendered 'illegal' tender, has been widely and helplessly viewed by the opposition parties as a tactical move for disarming them and rendering their ammunition as useless. A lot of hue and cry was raised by Mamta Bannerji, Arvind Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi and the left parties and others including internationally renowned economists. Manmohan Singh went to the extent of calling the move as " A Case of Organized loot and legalized Plunder". However, the move had its intended effect. The formation of a grand alliance was put on the back burner; instead each antagonist went scurrying to take care of his / her stockpile.
A lot of brouhaha was made by the opponents of Modi and BJP in the fond hope that demonetization would adversely affect the BJP's performance in the various elections that are in the offing.

Returning to the present---


The voting in Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand, first phase in Manipur and six phases in UP has already been completed. The voting for final phases in Manipur and UP is taking place on 8th March, 2017. The results on 11th March, 2017 will likely be a weather cock for the battle of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Mahabharata continues and is sure to continue till 2019 and may be beyond too.

References:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Uttar_Pradesh
2. https://revisitingindia.com/2013/07/09/the-rise-and-life-of-mayawati/
3.http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-conducted-surgical-strikes-on-terror-launch-pads-on-loc-significant-casualties-caused-dgmo/articleshow/54579855.cms