The defeat of BJP in electoral battles, first in Delhi & Bihar and subsequently in Bengal, coupled with the loss of its court battles in defence of the imposition of President's rule in Uttrakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, had given hope to the adversaries of BJP that they had finally hit upon a formula to nail the BJP down and to prevent it from coming to power at the centre in 2019. But undoubtedly, their celebrations were premature. BJP bounced back with a resounding victory in Assam, hitherto relatively uncharted territory for it. The events in Arunachal Pradesh also took turn in favour of the BJP when Pema Khandu deserted Indian National Congress(INC) to join Peoples' Party of Arunachal and chose to join hands with BJP to form a new government. These events have given BJP a new lease of life and have reinvigorated it in its fight against its detractors. Mahabharata has resumed and it continues......
I had started writing this piece of blog before the dates of elections in UP, Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand and municipalities and zila parishads in Maharashtra were announced. A lot has happened since then; a lot of water has flowed in the Sutlej, Yamuna, Ganga, Gomti and Godavari.
Here goes---
The bugle for the next all important battle has been sounded. The coming elections in Uttar Pradesh have driven all political parties including BJP, SP, BSP and INC into a frenzy. The frenetic scramble for organizing and reorganizing the armies, the deployment of armament, fine tuning of the strategies and action plans for this battle have started in dead earnest. The stakes in this battle are very very high for both BJP and its opponents.
The electoral history of Uttar Pradesh from 1989 onwards makes a very curious reading (See Reference 1 below). INC which had ruled the state up to that year, is no longer a force to reckon with. However, the realization seems to have dawned on its leaders that the elections in UP may well nigh be the last opportunity for them to redeem a modicum of its past glory. Accordingly, INC is ostensibly trying to put up a brave front. It has perhaps come to the conclusion that a failure in these elections will be the last nail in its coffin; official declaration of the failure would be tantamount to sounding of the death knell.
BSP and its supremo Mayavati have had flirtatious relations with SP and BJP from 1993 onwards. ( See Reference 2 Below)
During the period 1995-2003, Mayavati was crowned Chief Minister three times, though for a short period each time as given below.
i) 1995 : 137 days ( 3rd June 1995 to 18th October 1995)
ii) 1997: 184 Days 21st March 1997 to 20th September 1997
iii) 2002-03: 1 Year 118 Days 3 May 2002 to 29 August 2003
But the 2007 elections gave BSP and Mayavati a clear and unassailable majority and unfettered power to rule. This success was achieved through a very clever and strange coalition of Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins. BSP was able to wean the Muslims away from SP and poach the Brahmins from BJP.
Each stint of Mayavati's rule, irrespective of its length, was marked by corruption, arbitrariness and whimsicality in governance. Some people do credit her with economic growth of the state during her fourth term. It is claimed that during that period, UP economy grew by a substantial 7%.
In 2012, Mayavati's hopes of riding on the back of the claims of economic growth and returning to power for a second term were dashed and she was made to bite the dust by her arch rivals, the Yadav clan. The analysts attribute her defeat to a common irony of history. She had to reap what she had sown. She had been instrumental in deepening the social divide and widening the chasm prevalent in the society due to caste and religion. Because of her preoccupation with perpetration of these fissiparous tendencies, governance had become a casualty. The nemesis in the garb of anti-incumbency caught up with her.
Samajwadi party and its founder Mulayam Singh Yadav have also had a checkered history of rule in UP. Like Mayavati, he also has the dubious distinction of being coronated CM of UP thrice.
1. Mulayam Singh Yadav first became Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh in 1989. In November 1990, Yadav joined Janata Dal (Socialist) party of Chandra Shekhar. He was facilitated by INC to continue as chief minister. His government was felled by Congress In April 1991 in reaction to the aftermath of developments at the centre, wherein the Congress party withdrew support to government.
In April 1991, Congress party withdrew its support, culminating in the fall of Mulayam Singh's government and end of his first stint as CM of Uttar Pradesh.
In the mid-term elections to Uttar Pradesh assembly, which were held in mid-1991, Mulayam's party lost power to the BJP.
2. In 1992, Mulayam founded his own Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party). In 1993, he cobbled an alliance with BSP to prevent BJP from returning to power and temporarily succeeded in his machinations. He became chief minister of Uttar Pradesh with the support of Congress and Janata Dal. He continued occupying the CM's chair until BSP pulled the rug from under his feet.
3. Strangely, Mulayam's third stint as chief minister came about courtesy BJP. On August 25, 2003, BJP pulled out of its coalition with BSP resulting in the fall of Mayavati government. Simultaneously, a large enough number of BSP legislators revolted against Mayavati and deserted BSP. With the support of independents and small parties, Mulayam was able to become Chief Minister in September 2003 and continued in office till the elections in 2007 again did him in.
Samajwadi party regained control of UP with a resounding victory in 2012. The credit for this victory was given to the dynamic leadership of Akhilesh who has been hailed as a GenNext Yadav and a youth icon. Accordingly, Mulayam bowed out and handed over the baton to Akhilesh.
There are alleged similarities between BSP and SP rules. The anti-incumbency factor is at work again.
Perhaps Mulayam, Akhilesh and their advisers in Samajwadi party have also realized the ground reality that anti-incumbency has gained currency. They have taken recourse to the formula implemented by INC in Delhi. According to some knowledgeable analysts, when INC realized that people of Delhi would reject Sheela Dikshit-led INC in assembly elections, it devised a plan to hoodwink them. It created Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) as ostensibly-corruption-free anti-dote to BJP The ruse worked in Delhi. Aam Aadmi party was able to thwart BJP. This came about more of because of error of judgment on the part of BJP rather than due to any merit of AAP.
As per the adaption of the formula by SP, Akhilesh has projected himself as a victim of the machinations of his uncle Shivpal Yadav who is alleged to have manipulated his brother, Mulayam, the party patron. But it seems that secretly all stakeholders of SP, nurture hopes that people of UP would be beguiled by this and would vote in sympathy for Akhilesh, the innocent and unwary victim.
Immediately following the defeats in Delhi and Bihar, Modi and BJP must have come to realize that their return to power in 2019 was entirely dependent upon the advent or absence of a single entity - the stitching of a grand alliance between the opponents of Modi and BJP. Therefore, it simply follows that Modi had to come up with something that would either inhibit the formation of the grand alliance or would be something so extraordinary that people of India would forget the alliance even if it came into existence and would root for him instead.
And come up he did and how--
Returning to the present---
The voting in Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand, first phase in Manipur and six phases in UP has already been completed. The voting for final phases in Manipur and UP is taking place on 8th March, 2017. The results on 11th March, 2017 will likely be a weather cock for the battle of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Mahabharata continues and is sure to continue till 2019 and may be beyond too.
References:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Uttar_Pradesh
2. https://revisitingindia.com/2013/07/09/the-rise-and-life-of-mayawati/
3.http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-conducted-surgical-strikes-on-terror-launch-pads-on-loc-significant-casualties-caused-dgmo/articleshow/54579855.cms
I had started writing this piece of blog before the dates of elections in UP, Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand and municipalities and zila parishads in Maharashtra were announced. A lot has happened since then; a lot of water has flowed in the Sutlej, Yamuna, Ganga, Gomti and Godavari.
- INC has since abandoned its grand plans of fighting the elections on its own. It has effectively thrown in the towel and has accepted to ride pillion on the carrier of Akhilesh's Samajwadi Bicycle.
- The divorce between BJP and Shiv Sena for fighting municipal elections in Maharashtra turned out to be quite ugly and acrimonious. BJP came up trumps in most of the municipal elections. Even in Mumbai, its performance was by far the best though it could not overtake Shiv Sena. On the other hand, the decimation of INC continues unabated.
- The stage-managed fight between Akhilesh and Mulayam for keeping the 'Bicycle' makes another story, which may be narrated on some other occasion.
Here goes---
The bugle for the next all important battle has been sounded. The coming elections in Uttar Pradesh have driven all political parties including BJP, SP, BSP and INC into a frenzy. The frenetic scramble for organizing and reorganizing the armies, the deployment of armament, fine tuning of the strategies and action plans for this battle have started in dead earnest. The stakes in this battle are very very high for both BJP and its opponents.
The electoral history of Uttar Pradesh from 1989 onwards makes a very curious reading (See Reference 1 below). INC which had ruled the state up to that year, is no longer a force to reckon with. However, the realization seems to have dawned on its leaders that the elections in UP may well nigh be the last opportunity for them to redeem a modicum of its past glory. Accordingly, INC is ostensibly trying to put up a brave front. It has perhaps come to the conclusion that a failure in these elections will be the last nail in its coffin; official declaration of the failure would be tantamount to sounding of the death knell.
BSP and its supremo Mayavati have had flirtatious relations with SP and BJP from 1993 onwards. ( See Reference 2 Below)
During the period 1995-2003, Mayavati was crowned Chief Minister three times, though for a short period each time as given below.
i) 1995 : 137 days ( 3rd June 1995 to 18th October 1995)
ii) 1997: 184 Days 21st March 1997 to 20th September 1997
iii) 2002-03: 1 Year 118 Days 3 May 2002 to 29 August 2003
But the 2007 elections gave BSP and Mayavati a clear and unassailable majority and unfettered power to rule. This success was achieved through a very clever and strange coalition of Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins. BSP was able to wean the Muslims away from SP and poach the Brahmins from BJP.
Each stint of Mayavati's rule, irrespective of its length, was marked by corruption, arbitrariness and whimsicality in governance. Some people do credit her with economic growth of the state during her fourth term. It is claimed that during that period, UP economy grew by a substantial 7%.
In 2012, Mayavati's hopes of riding on the back of the claims of economic growth and returning to power for a second term were dashed and she was made to bite the dust by her arch rivals, the Yadav clan. The analysts attribute her defeat to a common irony of history. She had to reap what she had sown. She had been instrumental in deepening the social divide and widening the chasm prevalent in the society due to caste and religion. Because of her preoccupation with perpetration of these fissiparous tendencies, governance had become a casualty. The nemesis in the garb of anti-incumbency caught up with her.
Samajwadi party and its founder Mulayam Singh Yadav have also had a checkered history of rule in UP. Like Mayavati, he also has the dubious distinction of being coronated CM of UP thrice.
1. Mulayam Singh Yadav first became Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh in 1989. In November 1990, Yadav joined Janata Dal (Socialist) party of Chandra Shekhar. He was facilitated by INC to continue as chief minister. His government was felled by Congress In April 1991 in reaction to the aftermath of developments at the centre, wherein the Congress party withdrew support to government.
In April 1991, Congress party withdrew its support, culminating in the fall of Mulayam Singh's government and end of his first stint as CM of Uttar Pradesh.
In the mid-term elections to Uttar Pradesh assembly, which were held in mid-1991, Mulayam's party lost power to the BJP.
2. In 1992, Mulayam founded his own Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party). In 1993, he cobbled an alliance with BSP to prevent BJP from returning to power and temporarily succeeded in his machinations. He became chief minister of Uttar Pradesh with the support of Congress and Janata Dal. He continued occupying the CM's chair until BSP pulled the rug from under his feet.
3. Strangely, Mulayam's third stint as chief minister came about courtesy BJP. On August 25, 2003, BJP pulled out of its coalition with BSP resulting in the fall of Mayavati government. Simultaneously, a large enough number of BSP legislators revolted against Mayavati and deserted BSP. With the support of independents and small parties, Mulayam was able to become Chief Minister in September 2003 and continued in office till the elections in 2007 again did him in.
Samajwadi party regained control of UP with a resounding victory in 2012. The credit for this victory was given to the dynamic leadership of Akhilesh who has been hailed as a GenNext Yadav and a youth icon. Accordingly, Mulayam bowed out and handed over the baton to Akhilesh.
There are alleged similarities between BSP and SP rules. The anti-incumbency factor is at work again.
Perhaps Mulayam, Akhilesh and their advisers in Samajwadi party have also realized the ground reality that anti-incumbency has gained currency. They have taken recourse to the formula implemented by INC in Delhi. According to some knowledgeable analysts, when INC realized that people of Delhi would reject Sheela Dikshit-led INC in assembly elections, it devised a plan to hoodwink them. It created Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) as ostensibly-corruption-free anti-dote to BJP The ruse worked in Delhi. Aam Aadmi party was able to thwart BJP. This came about more of because of error of judgment on the part of BJP rather than due to any merit of AAP.
As per the adaption of the formula by SP, Akhilesh has projected himself as a victim of the machinations of his uncle Shivpal Yadav who is alleged to have manipulated his brother, Mulayam, the party patron. But it seems that secretly all stakeholders of SP, nurture hopes that people of UP would be beguiled by this and would vote in sympathy for Akhilesh, the innocent and unwary victim.
Immediately following the defeats in Delhi and Bihar, Modi and BJP must have come to realize that their return to power in 2019 was entirely dependent upon the advent or absence of a single entity - the stitching of a grand alliance between the opponents of Modi and BJP. Therefore, it simply follows that Modi had to come up with something that would either inhibit the formation of the grand alliance or would be something so extraordinary that people of India would forget the alliance even if it came into existence and would root for him instead.
And come up he did and how--
- The first thing that was done was the 'surgical strike' against the terrorist camps and hideouts along the LOC and inside POK. (see Reference 3 below) It was hailed and viewed as an extra-ordinarily courageous step taken by a clear minded, strong, upbeat and forthright government which would no longer take things lying down. The action not only surprised the Pakistan army, Pakistan government and Pakistan-backed terrorists, it overwhelmingly surprised the opponents of Modi and his party and government. While it caught the imagination of the whole of India, the perpetual cry-babies including Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal and others of their ilk got thoroughly confused. To start with they appreciated the action per se and the army for taking it, then did a somersault and started asking for proof. Even a child would understand the intention behind their see-saw behaviour and flip-flop attitude.
- The second thing was like obliteration bombing on the enemies' stockpiles of 'armament'. It is no secret that elections in India are fought like wars albeit with money serving as the arms and ammunition. A party which spends more money is more likely to win. And it is also equally well known that the money used for funding the elections is black money: illegally acquired and unaccounted money. Modi's announcement of 8th November, 2016 whereby currency notes of denominations of Rs.1000 and Rs.500 were rendered 'illegal' tender, has been widely and helplessly viewed by the opposition parties as a tactical move for disarming them and rendering their ammunition as useless. A lot of hue and cry was raised by Mamta Bannerji, Arvind Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi and the left parties and others including internationally renowned economists. Manmohan Singh went to the extent of calling the move as " A Case of Organized loot and legalized Plunder". However, the move had its intended effect. The formation of a grand alliance was put on the back burner; instead each antagonist went scurrying to take care of his / her stockpile.
Returning to the present---
The voting in Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand, first phase in Manipur and six phases in UP has already been completed. The voting for final phases in Manipur and UP is taking place on 8th March, 2017. The results on 11th March, 2017 will likely be a weather cock for the battle of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Mahabharata continues and is sure to continue till 2019 and may be beyond too.
References:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Uttar_Pradesh
2. https://revisitingindia.com/2013/07/09/the-rise-and-life-of-mayawati/
3.http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-conducted-surgical-strikes-on-terror-launch-pads-on-loc-significant-casualties-caused-dgmo/articleshow/54579855.cms
No comments:
Post a Comment